Tampilkan postingan dengan label Brexit. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Brexit. Tampilkan semua postingan

Sabtu, 09 Juli 2016

TRUMP COULD WIN?


Melania Trump, second from right: Small-town Slovenia.

Think of big cities versus small rural towns.

Small rural towns in the USA may tend to support Trump.


In 2015, the Republicans (RED) had control of the Senates in most states.

Currently, in the USA, the Republicans control most state governments.

The Republicans' dominance is said to be based on the support of poorer people in small rural towns.

www.longroom.com.

Think of big cities versus small towns.

Small rural towns in the UK tended to support exit from the EU.


BLUE - Exit. YELLOW - Remain.

Ken Fisher, in the Financial Times, writes that Trump could win.

Fisher writes that in the UK, "the media, pundits, politicians and prediction markets were too London and urban-focused, underestimating rural voters everywhere."

In England, "the vote was almost purely big cities for Remain versus tiny-town England for Leave.

"Tiny won...

"Similar sources underrate Donald Trump's chances in the same way...

"They view politics as urban-based and top-down..."


Electoral College results of the past four US Presidential elections (1996, 2000, 2004, 2008)
  States carried by the Republicans in all four elections
  States carried by the Republicans in three of the four elections
  States carried by each party twice in the four elections
  States carried by the Democrats in three of the four elections
  States carried by the Democrats in all four elections

"21 states and Washington DC voted Democratic in at least four of the last five, hence their label as 'blue states'.

"24 'red states' voted Republican, with five remaining swing states.

"Since blue states have 257 electoral votes - 13 short of what is needed - the media industry presumes Hillary Clinton has a huge edge...

"But ... Republicans control most state governments...

"Take Michigan, a so-called blue state in which Republicans now hold both legislative houses and all state officers.

"The same applies in other blue states: bottom-up they've evolved to be 'red'.


Wealthiest areas - dark green

"Democrats control just 11 state legislatures, versus 31 for Republicans and eight split...

"In 1978, Democrats held 20 of the 33 poorest states.

"Now they hold just two of the 33 poorest.

"Republicans have now replaced the Democrats as the party of the poor in rural areas...

"Trump would win 309 electoral college votes, 39 more than he needs...

"It's a revolt of the invisible poor...


Maine

"It's in Denmark with the rural based People’s Party.

"In Italy the Five Star’s strength stems primarily from small town and rural.

"Or France’s National Front, which is mostly non-Parisian.

"Or Austria’s support for presidential candidate Norbert Höfer, who just forced a revote.

More here: Trump could win



Of course, a president Trump and his Republicans may not actually help the rural poor.

TRUMP IS AN ESTABLISHMENT INSIDER, who likes big cities.



And the UK's vote to leave the EU may not actually change very much.

There may be a second referendum.

May's aide hints at second referendum.

Some of the right-wing leaders of the LEAVE campaign do not want to reduce immigration.

Dan Hannan insists Brexit 'will NOT lead to a reduction in migration'.

Nigel Farage warns that Tories are 'backsliding' over immigration.

Neocons linked to Tea Party paid for Andrea Leadsom's flights to US.


Chicago policemen and a suspect.

How do you keep a country united?

Austin in Texas is much wealthier than Palm Bay in Florida.

The District of Columbia is much wealthier than Mississippi.

In the USA, there is a very big gap between rich and poor areas.

If N.C.'s GDP were a country..

In Switzerland, Zug and is the richest canton.

But, none of the Swiss cantons is poor.

Population below poverty line 
Switzerland 6.9% 
USA 15.1% 

In the UK, London and Scotland are doing well.


But parts of the UK are becoming like Detroit.



The London government spends vast sums on transport in London and tiny sums on transport in the North East of England.

"Promised government spending on transport in the North East over the next two decades is £246 per person, compared with £4,893 per head in London."

The North East, unlike the of England, exports more than it imports!

England's northeast fears economic isolation - FT.com.



The journalist and economist John Kay has written about how to keep a country united

Kay writes about 'solidarity' - meaning mutual support.

Kay writes that in the USA "there is no explicit mechanism of redistribution of resources among states."

However, "Switzerland makes transfers from richer to poorer cantons."

Kay suggests that in countries such as the UK rural areas, and deprived urban communities, need more expenditure.

In Australia, a grants commission "attempts to parcel out central government funds on an objective basis to states and territories."

Switzerland is the country to copy?

SWITZERLAND has its problems with EVIL.



Switzerland is not perfect but it is peaceful and prosperous.

Switzerland is divided up into cantons and towns (communes). 

In Switzerland, the central government (federal government) is not given too much power; the cantons and towns have a lot of power; referendums are held.

The central government controls foreign policy, defense, the railways and the mint.

If the central government brings in a new policy, a referendum can be held to vote it down.

There is a six-month period during which a referendum can be called by any person or group able to get 50,000 signatures on a petition. 

A central government policy can be thrown out by a simple majority vote in a referendum.

www.swissinfo.ch. There is some poverty in Switzerland, but it is not as bad as in the USA.

The cantons and communes control economic policy, welfare policy, the police, education and so on. 

Each canton has its own parliament and constitution.

Switzerland spends a lot on welfare and education but manages to keep taxes relatively low. 

This is because there are no huge ministeries full of useless civil servants, or bureaucrats.

Cantons and large communes have referendums and 'initiatives'. An 'initiative' is when an ordinary citizen proposes a new policy or law.

Main source: ISIL -- The Swiss Cantonal System

Selasa, 28 Juni 2016

BORIS JOHNSON AND FRIENDS

tapnewswire.com.

According to the Daily Mail, in June 2013:

The UK's Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron, was rocked by a secret love affair.

1. The lovers are "middle-aged figures."

2. The affair "has potentially significant political implications for Cameron".

3. The affair "does not involve anyone serving in the Cabinet."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.

Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson's father Stanley worked for MI6 


What about Boris?

Boris Johnson was editor of The Spectator, which reportedly is full of spies. 

(Editor 'provided cover for spies' Media The Guardian)



Boris's mother is Charlotte Johnson Wahl (née Fawcett).[5]

Charlotte had a nervous breakdown as a result of Stanley's repeated infidelities; she was hospitalised with clinical depression.

While she was being treated, in September 1975, Boris and his siblings were sent to a preparatory boarding school, Ashdown House in East Sussex.[41]


Boris Johnson has 'sympathy'.

Boris Johnson was born in 1964 at a hospital on the Upper East Side of Manhattan in New York City.[2]

His birth was registered with both the US authorities and the city's British Consulate, and he was granted both American and British citizenship.[3]

Petronella Wyatt (centre), aged 18, on holiday in Italy with, from left, father Woodrow Wyatt, mother Verushka Wyatt, Rosemary Lamont, and her then husband Norman Lamont, the former Tory government minister. www.dailymail.co.uk/

In March 2013, in the Daily Mail, Boris Johnson's friend Petronella Wyatt wrote "the outrageous confessions of an upper-class Lolita."

The-outrageous-confessions-upper-class-Lolita.

In 2004 British newspapers reported that Petronella Wyatt had had a four-year affair with then-Conservative MP Boris Johnson. [1]


David Cameron.

"In the very early days of the referendum campaign, Boris Johnson and another leading Brexiter, former Tory leader, Michael Howard, both stated that a Brexit vote was a way of forcing Europe to make better terms with Britain."

Brexit



In February 2016, Boris Johnson said: "There is only one way to get the change we need - and that is to vote to go; because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."


Theresa May (centre) with her parents.

Theresa May beats Boris Johnson in poll for next Prime Minister.



BREXIT CANCELLED?



Bilderberger Gideon Rachman believes that after some new negotiations, Brexit will be cancelled.

This may be Boris Johnson's plan.



Boris Johnson (left) mandiner.blog.hu

"In the very early days of the referendum campaign, Boris Johnson and another leading Brexiter, former Tory leader, Michael Howard, both stated that a Brexit vote was a way of forcing Europe to make better terms with Britain."

Brexit




In 1992 the Danes voted to reject the Maastricht treaty.

In 2001 the Irish voted to reject the Nice treaty and in 2008 the Irish voted to reject the Lisbon treaty.

The Danes and the Irish were then granted some concessions. 

In each case, they had a second referendum. 

And the second time around they voted to accept the treaty.

I do not believe that Brexit will happen



In February 2016, Boris Johnson said: "There is only one way to get the change we need - and that is to vote to go; because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."

Once Johnson is Prime Minister, he can reverse his position on the EU.

I do not believe that Brexit will happen, writes Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times‎ 



"What Johnson would need to win a second referendum is an emergency brake on free movement of people, allowing the UK to limit the number of EU nationals moving to Britain if it has surged beyond a certain level.

"If the Remain campaign could fight a second referendum with a proper answer to the question of immigration it should be able to win fairly easily."

I do not believe that Brexit will happen, writes Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times‎ 

"The people of Britain are about to become the next victims of the ‘Coloured Revolution’ tactics used by Washington and Brussels against democratically elected governments from Serbia to Syria, from Ukraine to Brazil."

SNIPPITS AND SNAPPITS: Now Britain Faces 'Coloured Revolution' 

Heseltine wants Farage involved in negotiating Britain's position.



The UK government has to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty if it wants to leave the EU.

A key columnist at the Financial Times writes:

"So pro-Europeans should give up?

"No.

"So long as a British government does not trigger Article 50, Britain remains an EU member."


Can Brexit be stopped? Anything is possible - Financial Times. There Is a Small but Real Possibility That Brexit Will Never Happen / Will article 50 ever be triggered? / 'Bracksies': how Brexit could wind up not actually happening / Will article 50 ever be triggered?



George Osborne says Britain won't consider triggering Article 50 until a new Prime Minister is in office.

Are we being conned?

Corbyn (officially supports Remain) and Johnson (officially supports Exit).

It all looks rigged?

Boris Johnson - "friends believe he is privately committed to the European Union."

Corbyn and Johnson


Brexit Opinion Polls

Johnson - "his father was a member of the European Parliament and he spent many of his formative years in Brussels.

"He can trace his cosmopolitan family history to Turkey, Switzerland and Russia and he has Muslim, Jewish and Christian ancestors."

Corbyn and Johnson


Brendan Cox and his two children travelling by boat to the special service in Trafalgar Square

"Johnson didn't announce which side he was backing until February 21.

"Until then, British Prime Minister David Cameron believed he would back Remain.

"Days before Johnson announced he would support Brexit he told many close friends, including Roland Rudd, a longtime associate, that he would support the campaign to stay...

"Gove told Johnson he was backing Brexit and Johnson feared being outflanked...

"Johnson may emerge in a strong position in the short term no matter which way the vote goes. Corbyn will emerge further discredited whether it’s Yes or No..."

Continued here: Corbyn and Johnson

Minggu, 26 Juni 2016

BREXIT - PROF MARK BLYTH - PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE - JOHN PILGER



Professor John Curtice points out that only a minority of Conservatives supported 'Remain'.

'Remain' failed to win in the Conservative heartlands, such as South Buckinghamshire, Chichester and the New Forest.
 
David Cameron lost the EU referendum because



Concern as online call for second Brexit vote gains more than 39,000 signatures from Vatican City - population 800.


John Pilger explains why the British said no to the EU:

The supporters of the EU are an "insufferably patrician class... a bourgeoisie with insatiable consumerist tastes and ancient instincts of their own superiority... 

"Their house paper is the Guardian..."


UK WILL DO FINE - GERARD LYONS



The British economist Gerard Lyons is reputed to be an accurate economic forecaster.

In the late 1980s he correctly forecast that the 'Lawson Boom' would end in a Bust.

He correctly predicted sterling's exit from the ERM.

After Black Wednesday he correctly forecast that interest rates would fall sharply and the economy would grow strongly, which was contrary to the general consensus.

In 1999, he wisely opposed the UK adopting the euro, predicting that the combined currency would run into trouble, as occurred in the 2010 European sovereign-debt crisis.

The month before the 2008 financial crisis he was one of only two UK forecasters then predicting an imminent deep recession.



GERARD LYONS now writes in the Daily Mail:

1. The UK economy will do just fine. 

2. With quality goods at a competitive price, we can sell not just into the Single Market from outside the EU but into many markets across the globe.

3. This was not a vote against Europe but against the institutions and working practices of the European Union.

4. The recent scale of migration prevented wages from rising in some areas and increased pressure on public services and housing, creating tensions. 

This highlighted the need for both a sensible approach and for the government to invest more in infrastructure and to boost housing supply.

5. It makes sense to be thinking globally while distancing Britain from the plethora of crises that lie ahead for the EU.

These might include the Italian banking crisis, the German life insurance crisis, the Greek debt crisis, the youth unemployment crisis and the euro crisis. 



6. The UK now needs to focus on pro-growth policies driven by increased investment, infrastructure and innovation, where services, the City and manufacturing play their part.

7. We also need to start thinking less about zero-hour contracts and more about taking pride in ensuring that workers' rights are protected by Parliament.

8. The UK has made a clear, bold decision to distance itself from the centralising, controlling and regulating environment of the EU.

9. The countries that will succeed need to be global in their outlook, adaptable, flexible, and to control their own destiny. 

10. Many young people backed Remain, for many reasons, including fears that they would be unable to travel freely if we left the EU.

That is nonsense. People can travel freely across the globe now. 

Continued here: dailymail


Sabtu, 25 Juni 2016

CORNWALL AND BREXIT


Cornwall

Cornwall voted to leave the EU.

Membership of the EU hit Cornwall's fishing industry.

Cornwall is a somewhat neglected area - just like Mississippi in the USA, or Barlanark in Scotland.

Cornwall has no motorways.


Cornwall

In 2004, the GDP per head in Cornwall was 79.2% of the EU average.

In 2011, GDP per head in Cornwall was 64% of the European average.[98]

The GDP per head in the UK as a whole was 123.0% of the EU average.[97]


David Cameron in Cornwall.

If Cornwall was a country, it would be poorer than Lithuania and Hungary.



The EU has been giving Cornwall £60 million (60,000,000) per year, on average.

In the last 15 years, the EU has put £1 billion into Cornwall - including improving internet connections, and helping fund the Eden Project (a cluster of giant tropical domes) and Newquay Airport.

Compare that with the £14.5 billion (14,500,000,000) UK government expenditure on London's Crossrail project.

Nearly half England's infrastructure spending is spent in London.


tompride.wordpress.com.

What Cornwall did not get from the EU was:

Motorways

A thriving fishing industry

An end to poverty.


Jumat, 24 Juni 2016

BRITAIN'S EXIT FROM EU


Keith Cormack, Hartlepool - Hartlepool People

Why did people vote to leave the EU?

Paul Noble, a 57-year-old steel erector from Hartlepool, voted to leave the EU.

He says: "It's only the rich, the elite, who want to stay."

Demise of Hartlepool's economy has seen anti-EU feeling grow - FT.com.



Paul Noble's reasons for voting Leave:

"Immigration; erosion of powers; European despots and dictators telling us what to do all the time.

"Redcar steel; they didn't lift a hand.

"The fishing industry; they gave our sea away."


Hartlepool People

Paul Noble's reasons for voting Leave:

Tanks and trains for UK use are made overseas. "It’s as if they want big industry in Britain to be finished."

On his current construction site in Leeds, there is a Romanian earning £7.20 an hour. Among British tradesmen, he says, "you wouldn’t get a bricklayer for twice that."


Greatham, Hartlepool. Hartlepool People

Hartlepool has lost many of its traditional industries.

The male unemployment rate is more than twice the national average.

Loss of services at Hartlepool's hospital is a big local issue.

Demise of Hartlepool's economy has seen anti-EU feeling grow - FT.com.




Most of England voted to leave the EU.

Most of England is unhappy with the decisions that have been made by the elite in London.

Almost one million British households have more than £1 million worth of assets, not counting property and luxury goods.

One million British households are relying on food banks and charities to survive.

~